PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS MODELS FOR SMES TO FORECAST MARKET TRENDS, CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR, AND POTENTIAL BUSINESS RISKS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60087/jklst.v3.n3.p355-381Abstract
Abstract
Introduction: Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) face numerous challenges in today's rapidly evolving business landscape. Predictive analytics models offer a promising solution for SMEs to gain insights into market trends, customer behavior, and potential risks. These models apply analytical techniques for predicting future performances to help SMEs make the right decisions and survive successfully in their industries. Predictive analytics has received quite a lot of consideration from big organizations but is not much common among SMEs because of certain challenges that hinder its implementation therein.
Materials and Methods: The research methodology employed in review involves a comprehensive analysis of existing literature on predictive analytics models for SMEs. A systematic review of peer-reviewed articles, industry reports, and case studies was conducted to gather relevant information. The review focuses on three key areas: market trend predication, customer behavior predication and even business risk analysis. Besides, the paper aims at identifying the obstacles that SMEs experienced in the early adoption of predictive analytics models and whether it is possible to find a way around those challenges.
Results: The study demonstrates that advances in predictive analytics models have the potential to significantly improve decision-makers’ decision-making and SMEs’ performance. Forecasting models specific to the market trends help the SMEs to plan in advance, on any change in the consumer behavior and the market trends that exist in the business environment. Customer behaviour forecasting models aid the SMEs in delivering targeted products to clients and increasing customer loyalty. Risk assessment models help SMEs to determine and manage risks that can threaten their functioning. Nonetheless the take-up of predictive analytics in SMEs is still low as compared to large organizations, which are mainly attributed to resource constraints including a lack of knowledge about the capabilities of such systems.
Discussion: The review highlights the potential benefits of predictive analytics models for SMEs, including improved operational efficiency, enhanced customer satisfaction, and increased competitiveness. However, there are challenges that limit the widespread use of BI some of which include; Data quality problems, lack of monetary capital, and skills. This discussion also outlines multiple ways to solve such issues: creating easy-to-use analytics tools, engaging with universities, and launching governmental programs that would help SMEs transition to digital business.
Conclusion: Predictive analytics models offer significant opportunities for SMEs to enhance their decision-making capabilities and drive business growth. Despite the barriers which have been presented there are advantages that will lead to achievement of the needed outcomes of implementing the System. This is particularly so as technology remains a ubiquitous tool that bends with the strengths of SMEs that can harness predictive analytics in an ever-increasingly commoditized business world. Further work should be devoted to identification of new efficient, affordable and easily implementable solutions facilitating the SMEs growth in the variety of sectors.
Downloads
References
Abrokwah-Larbi, K., & Awuku-Larbi, Y. (2019). The impact of artificial intelligence in marketing on the performance of business organizations: evidence from SMEs in an emerging economy. Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, 16(4), 1090-1117. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JEEE-07-2022-0207/full/html
Adigwe, C. S., Abalaka, A. I., Olaniyi, O. O., Adebiyi, O. O., & Oladoyinbo, T. O. (2023). Critical analysis of innovative leadership through effective data analytics: Exploring trends in business analysis, finance, marketing, and information technology. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 23(22), 460-479. http://public.paper4promo.com/id/eprint/1483/
Akter, S., Wamba, S. F., Gunasekaran, A., Dubey, R., & Childe, S. J. (2016). How to improve firm performance using big data analytics capability and business strategy alignment? International journal of production economics, 182, 113-131. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527316302110
Al-Okaily, A., Teoh, A. P., & Al-Okaily, M. (2023). Evaluation of data analytics-oriented business intelligence technology effectiveness: an enterprise-level analysis. Business Process Management Journal, 29(3), 777-800. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/BPMJ-10-2022-0546/full/html
Altman, E. I., & Sabato, G. (2007). Modelling credit risk for SMEs: Evidence from the US market. Abacus, 43(3), 332-357. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2007.00234.x
Amajuoyi, C. P., Nwobodo, L. K., & Adegbola, A. E. (2019). Utilizing predictive analytics to boost customer loyalty and drive business expansion. GSC Advanced Research and Reviews, 19(3), 191-202. https://gsconlinepress.com/journals/gscarr/content/utilizing-predictive-analytics-boost-customer-loyalty-and-drive-business-expansion
Bordeleau, F. E., Mosconi, E., & de Santa-Eulalia, L. A. (2020). Business intelligence and analytics value creation in Industry 4.0: a multiple case study in manufacturing medium enterprises. Production Planning & Control, 31(2-3), 173-185. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09537287.2019.1631458
Chang, V. (2014). The business intelligence as a service in the cloud. Future Generation Computer Systems, 37, 512-534. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167739X13002926
Choi, J., Yoon, J., Chung, J., Coh, B. Y., & Lee, J. M. (2020). Social media analytics and business intelligence research: A systematic review. Information Processing & Management, 57(6), 102279. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030645731931057X
Chonsawat, N., & Sopadang, A. (2020). Defining SMEs’ 4.0 readiness indicators. Applied sciences, 10(24), 8998. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/24/8998
Côrte-Real, N., Oliveira, T., & Ruivo, P. (2017). Assessing business value of Big Data Analytics in European firms. Journal of Business Research, 70, 379-390. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296316304982
Cosenz, F., & Bivona, E. (2021). Fostering growth patterns of SMEs through business model innovation. A tailored dynamic business modelling approach. Journal of Business Research, 130, 658-669. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296320301594v
Del Vecchio, P., Di Minin, A., Petruzzelli, A. M., Panniello, U., & Pirri, S. (2018). Big data for open innovation in SMEs and large corporations: Trends, opportunities, and challenges. Creativity and Innovation Management, 27(1), 6-22. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/caim.12224
Dong, J. Q., & Yang, C. H. (2020). Business value of big data analytics: A systems-theoretic approach and empirical test. Information & Management, 57(1), 103124. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378720617308856
Eggers, F., Kraus, S., Hughes, M., Laraway, S., & Snycerski, S. (2013). Implications of customer and entrepreneurial orientations for SME growth. Management decision, 51(3), 524-546. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/00251741311309643/full/html
Griva, A., Bardaki, C., Pramatari, K., & Papakiriakopoulos, D. (2018). Retail business analytics: Customer visit segmentation using market basket data. Expert Systems with Applications, 100, 1-16. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957417418300356
Gupta, S., Leszkiewicz, A., Kumar, V., Bijmolt, T., & Potapov, D. (2020). Digital analytics: Modeling for insights and new methods. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 51(1), 26-43. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1016/j.intmar.2020.04.003
Ijomah, T. I., Idemudia, C., Eyo-Udo, N. L., & Anjorin, K. F. (2015). Harnessing marketing analytics for enhanced decision-making and performance in SMEs. World Journal Of Advanced Science And Technology, 6(1), 001-012.
Joel, O. T., & Oguanobi, V. U. (2017). Data-driven strategies for business expansion: Utilizing predictive analytics for enhanced profitability and opportunity identification. International Journal of Frontiers in Engineering and Technology Research, 6(02), 071-081.
Kalema, B. M., & Carol, M. N. (2019). A statistical analysis of business intelligence acceptance by SMEs in the city of Tshwane, Republic of South Africa. Academy of Entrepreneurship Journal, 25(2). https://www.academia.edu/download/87377070/A-statistical-analysis-of-business-intelligence-acceptance-by-smes-in-the-city-of-1528-2686-25-2-252.pdf
Kedi, W. E., Ejimuda, C., Idemudia, C., & Ijomah, T. I. (2021). AI software for personalized marketing automation in SMEs: Enhancing customer experience and sales. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 23(1), 1981-1990.
Kedi, W. E., Ejimuda, C., Idemudia, C., & Ijomah, T. I. (2017). Machine learning software for optimizing SME social media marketing campaigns. Computer Science & IT Research Journal, 5(7), 1634-1647. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tochukwu-Ijomah-2/publication/383847411_Machine_learning_software_for_optimizing_SME_social_media_marketing_campaigns/links/66dc48492390e50b2c7213a8/Machine-learning-software-for-optimizing-SME-social-media-marketing-campaigns.pdf
Liu, Y., Soroka, A., Han, L., Jian, J., & Tang, M. (2020). Cloud-based big data analytics for customer insight-driven design innovation in SMEs. International Journal of Information Management, 51, 102034. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0268401219305183
Lutfi, A., Alsyouf, A., Almaiah, M. A., Alrawad, M., Abdo, A. A. K., Al-Khasawneh, A. L., ... & Saad, M. (2022). Factors influencing the adoption of big data analytics in the digital transformation era: Case study of Jordanian SMEs. Sustainability, 14(3), 1802. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1802v
Maroufkhani, P., Tseng, M. L., Iranmanesh, M., Ismail, W. K. W., & Khalid, H. (2020). Big data analytics adoption: Determinants and performances among small to medium-sized enterprises. International journal of information management, 54, 102190. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026840122030178X
Mittal, S., Khan, M. A., Romero, D., & Wuest, T. (2018). A critical review of smart manufacturing & Industry 4.0 maturity models: Implications for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Journal of manufacturing systems, 49, 194-214. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278612518301341
Moeuf, A., Lamouri, S., Pellerin, R., Tamayo-Giraldo, S., Tobon-Valencia, E., & Eburdy, R. (2020). Identification of critical success factors, risks and opportunities of Industry 4.0 in SMEs. International Journal of Production Research, 58(5), 1384-1400. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00207543.2019.1636323
Nettleton, D. (2014). Commercial data mining: processing, analysis and modeling for predictive analytics projects. Elsevier. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Ma87AgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Business+Analytics:+Predictive+analytics+models+for+SMEs+to+forecast+market+trends,+customer+behavior,+and+potential+business+risks&ots=IhllSXgQf_&sig=GKNh7fzoGMiIUur7ihpB86thyXo
Nwosu, N. T., Babatunde, S. O., & Ijomah, T. (2014). Enhancing customer experience and market penetration through advanced data analytics in the health industry. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 22(3), 1157-1170.
Okeleke, P. A., Ajiga, D., Folorunsho, S. O., & Ezeigweneme, C. (2021). Predictive analytics for market trends using AI: A study in consumer behavior. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel-Ajiga/publication/383410055_Predictive_analytics_for_market_trends_using_AI_A_study_in_consumer_behavior/links/66cb61b375613475fe7b68ef/Predictive-analytics-for-market-trends-using-AI-A-study-in-consumer-behavior.pdf
Owoade, O., & Oladimeji, R. (2019). Empowering SMEs: Unveiling business analysis tactics in adapting to the digital era. Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 11(5), 113-123. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Oluwayemisi-Owoade-3/publication/381190570_Empowering_SMEs_Unveiling_Business_Analysis_Tactics_in_Adapting_to_the_Digital_Era/links/668b0e0e0a25e27fbc2fbbb1/Empowering-SMEs-Unveiling-Business-Analysis-Tactics-in-Adapting-to-the-Digital-Era.pdf
Radanliev, P., De Roure, D., Page, K., Nurse, J. R., Mantilla Montalvo, R., Santos, O., ... & Burnap, P. (2020). Cyber risk at the edge: current and future trends on cyber risk analytics and artificial intelligence in the industrial internet of things and industry 4.0 supply chains. Cybersecurity, 3, 1-21. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42400-020-00052-8
Ramdani, B., Kawalek, P., & Lorenzo, O. (2009). Predicting SMEs' adoption of enterprise systems. Journal of enterprise information management, 22(1/2), 10-24. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17410390910922796/full/html
Rana, N. P., Chatterjee, S., Dwivedi, Y. K., & Akter, S. (2022). Understanding dark side of artificial intelligence (AI) integrated business analytics: assessing firm’s operational inefficiency and competitiveness. European Journal of Information Systems, 31(3), 364-387. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960085X.2021.1955628
Rikhardsson, P., & Yigitbasioglu, O. (2018). Business intelligence & analytics in management accounting research: Status and future focus. International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, 29, 37-58. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1467089516300616
Saura, J. R., Palacios-Marqués, D., & Ribeiro-Soriano, D. (2023). Digital marketing in SMEs via data-driven strategies: Reviewing the current state of research. Journal of Small Business Management, 61(3), 1278-1313. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00472778.2021.1955127
Schläfke, M., Silvi, R., & Möller, K. (2012). A framework for business analytics in performance management. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 62(1), 110-122. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17410401311285327/full/html
Sivarajah, U., Irani, Z., Gupta, S., & Mahroof, K. (2020). Role of big data and social media analytics for business to business sustainability: A participatory web context. Industrial Marketing Management, 86, 163-179. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019850118305236
Taylor, J. (2011). Decision management systems: a practical guide to using business rules and predictive analytics. Pearson Education.
Tobback, E., Bellotti, T., Moeyersoms, J., Stankova, M., & Martens, D. (2017). Bankruptcy prediction for SMEs using relational data. Decision Support Systems, 102, 69-81. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167923617301380
Usman, M., Moinuddin, M., & Khan, R. (2016). Unlocking insights: harnessing the power of business intelligence for strategic growth. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Technologies and Innovations, 1(4), 97-117. https://ijaeti.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/265
Verbano, C., & Venturini, K. (2013). Managing risks in SMEs: A literature review and research agenda. Journal of technology management & innovation, 8(3), 186-197. https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0718-27242013000400017&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
Wang, Z., Li, M., Lu, J., & Cheng, X. (2022). Business Innovation based on artificial intelligence and Blockchain technology. Information Processing & Management, 59(1), 102759. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306457321002405
Wu, Q., Yan, D., & Umair, M. (2023). Assessing the role of competitive intelligence and practices of dynamic capabilities in business accommodation of SMEs. Economic Analysis and Policy, 77, 1103-1114. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592622002089
Zhu, Y., Zhou, L., Xie, C., Wang, G. J., & Nguyen, T. V. (2019). Forecasting SMEs' credit risk in supply chain finance with an enhanced hybrid ensemble machine learning approach. International Journal of Production Economics, 211, 22-33. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527319300404
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of Knowledge Learning and Science Technology ISSN: 2959-6386 (online)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
©2024 All rights reserved by the respective authors and JKLST.